Publications

[21]Matthews, H. D.*, Tokarska, K.B.*, Rogelj, J., Smith, C.J., MacDougall, A. H., Haustein, K., Mengis, N., Sippel, S., Forster, P.M., Knutti, R. An integrated approach to quantifying uncertainties in the remaining carbon budget. Communications Earth and Environment, 2, 7 (2021). *equal first authors (link, open-access)

[20]Tebaldi, C., Debeire, K., Eyring, V., Fischer, E., Fyfe, J., Friedlingstein, P., Knutti, R., Lowe, J., O'Neill, B., Sanderson, B., van Vuuren, D., Riahi, K., Meinshausen, M., Nicholls, Z., Tokarska, K. B., et al. Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6. Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 253–293 (2021). (link, open-access)

[19]Tokarska, K.B.*, Stolpe, M.B.*, Sippel, S., Fischer, E.M., Smith, C.J., Lehner, F., and Knutti, R. Past warming trend constrains future warming in CMIP6 models. Science Advances, 6, 12, eaaz9549 (2020). *equal first authors (link, open-access)

[18]Tokarska, K.B., Hegerl, G.C., Schurer, A.P., Forster, P.M., and Marvel, K. Observational constraints on the effective climate sensitivity from the historical period. Environmental Research Letters, 15, 034043 (2020). (link, open-access)

[17]Tokarska, K.B., Arora, V.K., Gillett, N.P., Lehner, F., Rogelj, J., Schleussner, C-F., Séférian, R., and Knutti, R. Uncertainty in carbon budget estimates due to internal climate variability. Environmental Research Letters, 15, 104064 (2020). (link, open-access)

[16]Matthews, H.D., Tokarska, K.B., Nicholls, Z.R.J., Rogelj, J., Canadell, J.G., Friedlingstein, P., Frölicher, T.L., Forster, P.M., Gillett, N.P., Ilyina, T., Jackson, R.B., Jones, C.D., Koven, C., Knutti, R., MacDougall, A.H., Meinshausen, M., Mengis, M., Séférian, R., Zickfeld, K. Opportunities and challenges in using carbon budgets to guide climate policy. Nature Geoscience, 13, 769–779 (2020). (link, free to read)

[15]McKenna, C.M., Maycock, A.C., Forster, P.M., Smith, C.J., and Tokarska, K.B. Stringent mitigation substantially reduces risk of unprecedented near-term warming rates. Nature Climate Change (2020). (link, free to read)

[14]Sherwood, S., Webb, M. J., Annan, J. D., Armour, K. R., Forster, P. M., Hargreaves, J.C., Hegerl, G., Klein, S. A., Marvel, K. D., Rohling, E., Watanabe, M., Andrews, T., Braconnot, P., Bretherton, C.S., Foster, G. L., Hausfather, Z., von der Heydt, A., Knutti, R., Mauritsen, T., Norris, J. R., Proistosescu, C., Rugenstein, M., Schmidt, G. A., Tokarska, K.B., Zelinka, M. D. An assessment of Earth's climate sensitivity using multiple lines of evidence. Reviews of Geophysics (2020). (link, open-access)

[13]Tokarska, K.B., Schleussner, C-F., Rogelj, J., Stolpe, M.B., Pfleiderer, P., and Gillett, N.P. Recommended temperature metrics for carbon budget estimates, model evaluation and climate policy. Nature Geoscience, 12, 64–971 (2019). (link, free to read)

[12]Tokarska, K.B., Zickfeld, K., and Rogelj, J. Path independence of carbon budgets when meeting a stringent global mean temperature target after an overshoot. Earth's Future, 7, 1283–1295 (2019). (link, open-access)

[11]Zhang, J., Wang, F., Tokarska, K.B., and Yang, Z. Multiple possibilities for future precipitation changes in Asia under the Paris Agreement. International Journal of Climatology, 1–15 (2020). (link)

[10]Jones, C. D., Frölicher, T. L., Koven, C., MacDougall, A. H., Matthews, H. D., Zickfeld, K., Rogelj, J., Tokarska, K. B., Gillett, N., Ilyina, T., Meinshausen, M., Mengis, N., Séférian, R., Eby, M., and Burger, F.A. The Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP) contribution to C4MIP. Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 10, 4375–4385 (2019). (link, open-access)

[9]Tokarska, K.B., Hegerl, G.C., Schurer, A.P., Ribes, A., and Fasullo, J.T. Quantifying human contributions to past and future ocean warming and thermosteric sea level rise. Environmental Research Letters, 14, 074020 (2019). (link, open-access)

[8]Sniderman, K.J.M., Brown, J., Woodhead, J.D., King, A.D., Gillett, N.P., Tokarska, K.B., Lorbacher, K., Hellstrom, J., Drysdale, R.N., and Meinshausen, M. Southern Hemisphere subtropical drying as a transient response to warming. Nature Climate Change, 9, 232–236 (2019). (link, free to read)

[7]Tokarska, K.B. Countdown to 1.5 °C warming. Nature Geoscience, 11, 546–547 (2018). (link, free to read)

[6]Tokarska, K.B., Gillett, N.P., Arora, V.K., Lee, W. G., and Zickfeld, K. The influence of non-CO2 forcings on cumulative carbon emissions budgets. Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 034039 (2018). (link, open-access)

[5]Tokarska, K.B. and Gillett, N.P. Cumulative carbon emissions budgets consistent with 1.5 °C global warming. Nature Climate Change, 8, 296–299 (2018). (link, free to read)

[4]Wang, F., Ge, Q., Chen, D., Luterbacher, J., Tokarska, K.B., & Haoa, Z. Global and regional climate responses to national-committed emission reductions under the Paris Agreement. Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography, 100, 240–253 (2018). (link)

[3]Wang, F., Tokarska, K.B., Ge, Q., Zhang, X., Hao, Z., & Wu, M. Climate warming from emission reductions consistent with the Paris Agreement. Advances in Meteorology, 2487962 (2018). (link)

[2]Tokarska, K.B., Gillett, N.P., Weaver, A.J., Arora, V.K., and Eby, M. The climate response to five trillion tonnes of carbon. Nature Climate Change, 6, 851–855 (2016). (link, free to read)

[1]Tokarska, K.B. and Zickfeld, K. The effectiveness of net negative carbon dioxide emissions in reversing anthropogenic climate change. Environ. Res. Lett., 10, 094013 (2015). (link, open-access)

See Google Scholar for a full, up-to-date list of publications.